發生了什麼
2025年12月17–18日，美國政府向國會通知了超過11十億美元的新對臺軍售（Foreign Military Sales）案 — 據報總額為11.1十億美元，按金額計是雙邊關係史上最大的單一軍售包裹，超越先前8.4十億美元的最高紀錄。據報內容包括海馬士發射車與彈藥、六十門M109A7帕拉丁自走砲、標槍反裝甲飛彈，以及ALTIUS遊蕩彈藥。此次通知使已通知但未交付案件的總值 — 即積壓 — 升至約32十億美元，其中當時約46%為不對稱系統，而2023年底時為22%。
A congressional notification is the first rung of a long ladder, not a delivery, and this module's standing discipline separates notification from contract, from backlog, from delivery, from fielding. What the notification does establish is that the pipeline did not stop: any account of 2026 that describes US transfers only as slowing omits the largest package ever notified, entered five months earlier. It also shifted the composition of what is owed toward the asymmetric systems Taiwan's own defence debate is about, which is a more informative fact than the headline value.
信心：高
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