Standing assessment
Current condition
Moderate confidenceAs of
Taiwan imports almost all of its primary energy and the reserves are not one number: gas carries an 11-day security stockpile requirement rising to 14 by 2027, coal about 30 days with reported holdings above that, and oil a 90-day statutory reserve.
Nuclear generation has been zero since May 2025, which raised the share of the mix that depends on arriving cargoes. Gas is the binding case — the largest share of generation and the shortest cover. A supplementary budget before the legislature carries an energy share, and the reactor restart review has produced no decision.
Latest reviewMovement observed
A supplementary budget before the legislature carries an energy share. The requirements, the mix and the restart review are unchanged; the assessment holds.
New evidence bears on the question; the assessment holds. The condition stands as of .
- 2026-08-28: Baseline
- 2026-09-06: Movement observed
Why it matters
An island that imports its primary energy and generates most of it from the fuel with the shortest cover is exposed at the point where a maritime interruption meets a stockpile requirement. The published requirements differ by an order of magnitude and are not additive, which is why no days-of-energy figure is published here: the question is which stock binds first and whether the mix moves back toward stored fuel before it is tested. Semiconductor production, water and civil systems all sit downstream of the same answer.
Observables5 named · “met” describes evidence, not success
01Test
Published stockpile requirements and reported holdings
Gas, coal and oil read separately: the requirement, the reported holding, and any change to either.
02Test
The generation mix and its gas share
Monthly generation by fuel from the operator, read for whether the mix shifts back toward stored fuel or further toward arriving cargoes.
03Test
The reactor restart review
A decision, a scheduled vote or a regulatory finding on restarting any of the shut reactors — the one lever that changes the gas share without a cargo.
04Test
LNG contracting and supplier diversity
New long-term contracts, their sources and their terms, read for whether supply concentration falls.
05Test
Energy continuity exercises and their published findings
Whether the exercises begun in 2026 extend from communications to energy, and whether findings are published.
What would change the assessment2 thresholds · the boundaries as the record states them, none with a number
A restart decision or an enacted stockpile change that lifts gas cover materially, or a generation mix that moves back toward stored fuel over two quarters
Would meanchanges which stock binds first.
A documented interruption to LNG arrivals of more than a few days
Would meantests the requirements against the event they exist for.
What remains unknown
- Reported holdings are operator statements and are not audited against the statutory requirements in any published series.
- Taiwan does not publish a continuity plan for a maritime interruption, so what the stockpiles are meant to cover is inferred from the requirements.
Readings the evidence also supports
- The binding constraint under interruption is port and regasification capacity rather than stock, in which case the stockpile figures answer the wrong question.
Listed because the record's own assessment is not the only one its sources permit — not as a hedge on the assessment above.
Review ledger2 entries · opened · newest first, each tied to the review that made it
Movement observed
A supplementary budget before the legislature carries an energy share. The requirements, the mix and the restart review are unchanged; the assessment holds.
Brief item Taiwan's security budget spends more on the price of fuel than on weaponsReviewed in 2026-09-06
Baseline
Opened with the module's standing watch list at the Taiwan convergence pass of 28 August 2026, which replaced a days-of-energy framing with the three separate requirements.
Connected system16 canonical records this question runs through · Watch owns the edge; each record shows the question back
Parties and forces 3
Means and systems 4
Campaigns
Ground 3
Arrangements and events 2
Vigil analysis 4
Weekly Briefs that reviewed it1 review
Weekly Briefs 1
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Assessed as of — 2026-09-06 Last reviewed — 2026-09-06