Justice Mission-2025: the largest exercise since 2022, and the closest

What happened

The PLA Eastern Theater Command announced joint exercises codenamed "Justice Mission-2025" on the morning of 29 December 2025, involving Army, Navy, Air Force and Rocket Force units in waters and airspace around Taiwan. It was the eighth major exercise around the island since August 2022 and ran until the Command declared its conclusion late on 31 December, with the heaviest activity on the first two days. Taiwan's defence ministry reported 89 aircraft and 28 naval vessels detected on day one — of which 13 were China Coast Guard rather than navy — and 71 aircraft with a further 15 coast guard vessels on day two; 29 December was the second-largest single-day ADIZ entry on record. Announced closure areas were published partly through Eastern Theater Command navigation warnings and partly through the PRC Maritime Safety Administration, with one further area announced by radio only. Accounts differ on the total: Taiwan's defence ministry identified seven designated zones, while one compilation counts eight.

This is the reference point against which every later statement about the 2026 activity baseline is measured, and three things about it are load-bearing. First, the Eastern Theater Command's own stated objectives included "blockading key ports and territory" alongside combat-readiness patrols and deterrence of outside intervention — Vigil records that as declared exercise language, not as evidence that any blockade occurred or was attempted, and no interference with commercial shipping was reported. Second, the announced areas sat closer to Taiwan than in previous exercises, with several overlapping waters Taiwan claims as territorial sea; no PRC vessel entered that territorial sea, and roughly ten rockets are reported to have impacted within the contiguous zone twelve to twenty-four nautical miles out — the first such firings since 2022. Declared zone geometry, actual vessel entry and munition impact are three different facts and secondary reporting routinely collapses them. Third, coast guard vessels operated inside a military joint exercise, which is the clearest documented instance of the law-enforcement instrument and the military one being used together.

Confidence: High