What happened
After a regime offensive into Idlib brings Turkish and Russian forces to the edge of direct war — including the death of dozens of Turkish soldiers — Presidents Erdoğan and Putin agree a ceasefire and joint patrols along the M4. The war's lines freeze into the four-zone map that holds until 2024.
The freeze preserved Idlib — and within it HTS's proto-state — for four years. The force that took Damascus in 2024 was built, trained and administered inside the enclave this ceasefire protected.
Confidence: High
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