What happened
Both governments describe the exercise as a joint strategic exercise of the Regional Troops Grouping of Belarus and Russia, focused on the employment of troop groupings in the interests of the Union State's military security. Belarus's ministry gives about 13,000 participants; Lithuanian intelligence, the only public allied figure, gives 30,000 from both countries with 8,000 in Belarus. The announced scale was cut in May 2025 and the main activity moved inland.
Zapad is the recurring event through which the module reads Russian and Belarusian intent towards the flank, and the 2025 edition is recorded because its declared scale, its actual scale and its framing are three different claims by three different parties. The module counts no exercises; it records this one because the disagreement about it is the evidence.
Confidence: Moderate
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