發生了什麼
川普總統於2026年9月18日簽署Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026，使其成為法律。該法授權對俄羅斯石油與天然氣的最大買家課徵最高100%的關稅，並規定對俄羅斯總統、政府官員、寡頭、銀行與金融機構以及影子艦隊實施制裁；它也擴大對伊朗能源與武器部門的制裁。該法在眾議院以262票對159票通過，在參議院以86票對11票通過。制裁指定將在三十天內觸發關稅，總統可酌情豁免或設定較低稅率。截至本簡報截稿時，尚未宣布任何指定。
THE INSTRUMENT IS NEW; THE POLICY IS NOT YET. Every sanctions measure against Russia's oil revenue until now has acted on Russia, on the vessels that carry the oil or on the entities that finance it. This one acts on the buyers, and it does so through tariffs rather than through the financial system — which places the decision in trade policy, where the executive has the widest discretion and where the countries concerned are among the largest United States trading partners. That is why the discretion matters more than the ceiling: a statute whose central mechanism may be waived at will is a bargaining instrument before it is a sanctions regime, and nothing about its passage establishes that it will be used. What can be said is that the authority now exists in law and did not before, and that the observable is a designation — a named purchaser, a rate and a date — rather than a statement of intent. Its Iran provisions put the same signature on both of Vigil's sanctioned-energy files, which is a fact about the drafting rather than evidence of a joined strategy.
信心：高
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