VIGIL CONSILIUM
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Kampania

Wojna dwunastodniowa, czerwiec 2025 r.

Dwanaście dni, które ustanowiły bezpośrednią wymianę ciosów między państwami i po których inspektorzy nie wrócili.

13 – 24 June 2025

Zakończona
Ocena na dzień
2026-09
Ostatni przegląd
2026-09-04

OcenaPewność: wysoka

Kontekst, nie wskazywanie celów. Wpisy kampanii opisują cele, uczestników, fazy i wyniki na poziomie opublikowanych analiz; nie zawierają bieżących pozycji, stosunku sił, lokalizacji jednostek ani stanów liczebnych.

Czym była ta kampania

Israel began strikes on Iran on 13 June 2025 and the United States struck three nuclear facilities on 22 June; a ceasefire was announced on 24 June. It is a separate, concluded conflict — and the point after which IAEA access to the struck sites was never restored.

Two things carry forward. It established direct exchange between Iran and Israel as the pattern, eight months before the 2026 campaign opened. And it is the event after which the International Atomic Energy Agency lost access to the sites it had been verifying — the last inventory it verified dates from 13 June 2025, the day the strikes began, and the Agency has been unable to account for that material since.

Pewność: wysoka Stan na 2026-09Przejrzano 2026-09-04

Podsumowanie

Israel initiated strikes against Iran on 13 June 2025. The United States conducted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June, described by United States officials as narrowly tailored to destroy or severely degrade the nuclear programme. A ceasefire was announced on 24 June. The conflict is recorded here at the level needed to explain what followed it and no further: a detailed reconstruction belongs to a module about that conflict, which this is not.

Siły główne

  • Siły Obronne Izraela Siły główne · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2025-06

    The source names Israel; the organisational identification is Vigil's.

  • Dowództwo Centralne USA Siły główne · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2025-06

    Struck three nuclear facilities on 22 June 2025. The regional command is Vigil's institutional identification; no US component is named by the source.

Siły przeciwne

  • Korpus Strażników Rewolucji Islamskiej Siły przeciwne · Pewność: wysoka · stan na 2025-06
  • Siły Powietrzno-Kosmiczne KSRI Siły przeciwne · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2025-06

    Named at service level because the evidence names it: the opening Israeli strike killed the Aerospace Force's commander together with the commanders of its drone, surface-to-surface missile and air-defence wings, reportedly as they met to plan Iran's response. The 2026 campaign carries no equivalent service-level participant, because no source this module has read names one.

Skutek i obecny stan

Concluded with an announced ceasefire on 24 June 2025. Iranian nuclear verification access was not restored afterwards, and eight months later a larger campaign opened.

Co pozostaje nieznane

  • The damage to Iran's nuclear programme is disputed at the highest level: a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary assessment reportedly put the setback at months, while the CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence circulated statements suggesting more severe damage. This module authors no assessment of the damage.
  • This record covers the conflict only as far as it explains the present system. Its own chronology, casualties and military course are not authored.

Zobacz w trybie Eksploruj siły, które ją prowadzą Interaktywnie: wybierz ten wpis i prześledź, co się z nim łączy.

Ocena na dzień — 2026-09 Ostatni przegląd — 2026-09-04

Compared with The 2026 interstate war

Two campaigns in this module, set beside each other on the fields both records carry. Nothing here is derived, scored or ranked.

The same three belligerents eight months apart, and the differences are the finding. June 2025 ran twelve days, was aimed at the nuclear programme and ended in an announced ceasefire; this one has run six months, has been aimed at the whole Iranian state and has reorganised the region's energy and shipping. Reading them together shows what changed between a strike campaign and a war — and that the interval between them was long enough for the snapback to happen inside it.

Comparison of The twelve-day war, June 2025 and The 2026 interstate war on canonical record fields
FieldWojna dwunastodniowa, czerwiec 2025 r.Wojna międzypaństwowa z 2026 r.
Period13 – 24 June 2025Od 28 lutego 2026 r.
StanZakończonaTrwa
MechanizmDwanaście dni, które ustanowiły bezpośrednią wymianę ciosów między państwami i po których inspektorzy nie wrócili.Kampania uderzeń, która rozpoczęła się pewnego lutowego poranka i w ciągu sześciu miesięcy przeorganizowała energetykę, żeglugę i bezpieczeństwo regionu.
Places in the recordnot recordedMiejsca: 5
Phases on filenot recorded4
Stan sprawyConcluded with an announced ceasefire on 24 June 2025. Iranian nuclear verification access was not restored afterwards, and eight months later a larger campaign opened.Ongoing at the research cutoff of 4 September 2026, with no agreement in force. Vigil states where the campaign stands and makes no claim about how it ends.
Humanitarian effectnot recordedA United States strike on a school at Minab killed 168 people, most of them children, on the opening day. Approximately 20,000 seafarers were stranded aboard vessels unable to move, and the maritime regulator has confirmed 17 seafarer deaths.
Stan na2026-092026-09
Pewność Pewność: wysoka Pewność: wysoka

Both records are campaign records in the same module and are read here on their own terms. Similar mechanisms at different scales are not the same phenomenon, and this table is arranged to make the differences as visible as the resemblance.

Powiązane wpisy

Wpisy (liczba: 5), które wymienia ta kampania lub które ją wymieniają — każdy to wyraźne odwołanie w opublikowanym wpisie; nic nie wywnioskowano z samej tematyki.

Wydarzenia w jej ramach1

Datowane wydarzenia, które ta kampania umieszcza w swoich ramach.