VIGIL CONSILIUM
Le contexte, pas les gros titres.
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Campagne

La guerre de douze jours, juin 2025

Douze jours qui ont établi l’échange direct d’État à État, et après lesquels les inspecteurs ne sont pas revenus.

13 – 24 June 2025

Terminée
Évalué au
2026-09
Dernière revue
2026-09-04

ÉvaluationConfiance élevée

Contexte, pas ciblage. Les fiches de campagne décrivent les objectifs, les participants, les phases et les issues au niveau de l’analyse publiée ; elles ne contiennent aucune position actuelle, aucun rapport de forces, aucun emplacement ni effectif d’unité.

Ce qu’a été cette campagne

Israel began strikes on Iran on 13 June 2025 and the United States struck three nuclear facilities on 22 June; a ceasefire was announced on 24 June. It is a separate, concluded conflict — and the point after which IAEA access to the struck sites was never restored.

Two things carry forward. It established direct exchange between Iran and Israel as the pattern, eight months before the 2026 campaign opened. And it is the event after which the International Atomic Energy Agency lost access to the sites it had been verifying — the last inventory it verified dates from 13 June 2025, the day the strikes began, and the Agency has been unable to account for that material since.

Confiance : élevée Au 2026-09Revu le 2026-09-04

Synthèse

Israel initiated strikes against Iran on 13 June 2025. The United States conducted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June, described by United States officials as narrowly tailored to destroy or severely degrade the nuclear programme. A ceasefire was announced on 24 June. The conflict is recorded here at the level needed to explain what followed it and no further: a detailed reconstruction belongs to a module about that conflict, which this is not.

Forces principales

  • Israel Defense Forces Force principale · Confiance : modérée · au 2025-06

    The source names Israel; the organisational identification is Vigil's.

  • US Central Command Force principale · Confiance : modérée · au 2025-06

    Struck three nuclear facilities on 22 June 2025. The regional command is Vigil's institutional identification; no US component is named by the source.

Forces adverses

  • Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Force adverse · Confiance : élevée · au 2025-06
  • IRGC Aerospace Force Force adverse · Confiance : modérée · au 2025-06

    Named at service level because the evidence names it: the opening Israeli strike killed the Aerospace Force's commander together with the commanders of its drone, surface-to-surface missile and air-defence wings, reportedly as they met to plan Iran's response. The 2026 campaign carries no equivalent service-level participant, because no source this module has read names one.

Issue et situation actuelle

Concluded with an announced ceasefire on 24 June 2025. Iranian nuclear verification access was not restored afterwards, and eight months later a larger campaign opened.

Ce qui reste inconnu

  • The damage to Iran's nuclear programme is disputed at the highest level: a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary assessment reportedly put the setback at months, while the CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence circulated statements suggesting more severe damage. This module authors no assessment of the damage.
  • This record covers the conflict only as far as it explains the present system. Its own chronology, casualties and military course are not authored.

Voir dans Explorer la force qui conduit cette campagne Interactif : sélectionnez cette fiche et suivez ce qui s’y rattache.

Évalué au — 2026-09 Dernière revue — 2026-09-04

Compared with The 2026 interstate war

Two campaigns in this module, set beside each other on the fields both records carry. Nothing here is derived, scored or ranked.

The same three belligerents eight months apart, and the differences are the finding. June 2025 ran twelve days, was aimed at the nuclear programme and ended in an announced ceasefire; this one has run six months, has been aimed at the whole Iranian state and has reorganised the region's energy and shipping. Reading them together shows what changed between a strike campaign and a war — and that the interval between them was long enough for the snapback to happen inside it.

Comparison of The twelve-day war, June 2025 and The 2026 interstate war on canonical record fields
FieldLa guerre de douze jours, juin 2025La guerre interétatique de 2026
Period13 – 24 June 2025Depuis le 28 février 2026
StatutTerminéeEn cours
MécanismeDouze jours qui ont établi l’échange direct d’État à État, et après lesquels les inspecteurs ne sont pas revenus.Une campagne de frappes ouverte un matin de février et qui a réorganisé en six mois l’énergie, la navigation et la sécurité d’une région.
Places in the recordnot recorded5 lieux
Phases on filenot recorded4
Où en est la situationConcluded with an announced ceasefire on 24 June 2025. Iranian nuclear verification access was not restored afterwards, and eight months later a larger campaign opened.Ongoing at the research cutoff of 4 September 2026, with no agreement in force. Vigil states where the campaign stands and makes no claim about how it ends.
Humanitarian effectnot recordedA United States strike on a school at Minab killed 168 people, most of them children, on the opening day. Approximately 20,000 seafarers were stranded aboard vessels unable to move, and the maritime regulator has confirmed 17 seafarer deaths.
Situation au2026-092026-09
Confiance Confiance : élevée Confiance : élevée

Both records are campaign records in the same module and are read here on their own terms. Similar mechanisms at different scales are not the same phenomenon, and this table is arranged to make the differences as visible as the resemblance.

Fiches liées

5 fiches que cette campagne nomme, ou qui la nomment — chacune étant une référence explicite dans une fiche publiée, rien n’étant déduit du sujet traité.

Événements qui en font partie1

Événements datés que cette campagne place en son sein.