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Couverture · Caucase du Sud

Acteur étatique

Union économique eurasiatique

Russie et structures alignées Union économique · adhésion contestée

Dernière revue
2026-09-28

ÉvaluationConfiance élevée

Les chiffres comportent leur propre incertitude. En temps de guerre, les données de population, d’économie et de dépenses militaires sont des estimations, souvent contestées ; chaque chiffre ci-dessous indique sa date de référence et un degré de confiance, et les postes de direction reflètent la date de la dernière revue et peuvent changer sans préavis.

Ce qu’est cet acteur

The Russian-led customs union and single market that Armenia joined in 2015 and still belongs to — and, since May 2026, the institution through which the other members have asked Armenia to choose between it and the European Union.

Confiance : élevée Revu le 2026-09-28

Membres dans le CaucaseArmenia only, a full member since 2 January 2015. Azerbaijan and Georgia are not membersAu 2026-09 · Confiance : élevée
What membership carriesA customs union with a common external tariff set by the Eurasian Economic Commission; free movement of goods, with sanitary and phytosanitary exceptions; and work without permits for members' citizensAu 2026-09 · Confiance : élevée Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, Articles 25, 29, 42, 56 and 97. Article 35 places free-trade agreements with third parties in the Union's competence, which is the legal reason a bilateral EU free-trade agreement is not available to a member. Sources : Eurasian Economic Union official texts and statements↗
The Astana statementOn 29 May 2026 the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan called for an Armenian referendum on EU accession or continued membership, and commissioned a report for the December 2026 Supreme Council on the consequences of suspending the Treaty's application to ArmeniaAu 2026-05 · Confiance : élevée Armenia did not join the statement. The Treaty provides for withdrawal on a member's own notice (Article 118, twelve months) and contains no procedure for suspending or expelling a member; how a suspension would be effected has not been stated. Sources : Official government statements · Established international media reporting
Armenia's complaintArmenia asked the Eurasian Economic Commission in June 2026 to examine Russia's restrictions on Armenian agricultural products, and said on 8 September that a complaint had been lodged. No finding has been reportedAu 2026-09 · Confiance : modérée Sources : Official government statements · Established international media reporting

Ce qu’est l’organisation ici

In this module the EAEU is a membership and a legal regime, not a policy actor with a position of its own. What matters about it is what membership gives Armenia — tariff-free access to the Russian market, work without permits, and the customs-union context in which Russia removed its export duty on gas to Armenia in 2013 — and what it rules out: a free-trade agreement or customs union with anyone else.

L’impasse

Armenia legislated in 2025 to begin an EU accession process and its prime minister said on 24 August 2026 that an application may soon be made, while stating that Armenia remains a member and has lodged no withdrawal. The other four members' answer of 29 May was to ask for a referendum and to prepare for a decision in December. Each side is asking the other to bear the cost of ending the membership — the same shape as Armenia's CSTO standoff, in an institution that matters far more to its economy.

Ce qui n’a pas changé

Armenia still applies the common external tariff, still trades inside the single market and still attends the Union's councils — its prime minister was at the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in August 2026. The restrictions Russia placed on Armenian produce were imposed inside the Union, under the sanitary exceptions its Treaty allows, and Armenia's answer has been to use the Union's own complaint procedure rather than to leave it.

Not published for Eurasian Economic UnionPosture (objectifs, contraintes, leviers)

Ailleurs dans le module Caucase

Profil économique Corridors et puissances extérieures Tous les profils du Caucase
Confiance : élevée High for the Treaty provisions, the membership dates and the Astana statement, which is quoted by the Armenian state news agency and consistent across Armenian and Russian reporting. Moderate for the complaint, which is an Armenian official's account with no Commission record found. The reading of the standoff is Vigil's. Sources : Eurasian Economic Union official texts and statements↗ · Official government statements · Interfax↗ · RFE/RL (Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty)↗ · Established international media reporting Méthodologie Corrections Ouvrir dans Explorer

Dernière revue — 2026-09-28

Questions Watch que cet acteur concerne

Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cet acteur, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.

Fiches liées

3 records that Eurasian Economic Union names, or that name it — every one an explicit reference in a published record, nothing inferred from subject matter.

Relations1

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Nommé dans ces événements1

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Notes d’analyse1

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