What happened
Tsai Ing-wen wins re-election with the largest vote total in Taiwan's democratic history, in a campaign heavily shaped by the Hong Kong protests and crackdown of 2019.
Hong Kong settled the "one country, two systems" question in Taiwanese public opinion, removing Beijing's principal political offer. What remains in the absence of an attractive proposition is pressure — which is the strategic logic underlying most of what this module tracks.
Confidence: High
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