發生了什麼
馬鞍山核電廠2號機於2025年5月18日停機，臺灣的商業核能發電就此結束。六座反應爐如今均已停機。這項決定完成了多年前立法的非核進程，而它所落在的體系幾乎全部初級能源都仰賴進口 — 核能原本承擔的比例主要由天然氣吸收，而天然氣正是儲備天數最短的燃料。2025年8月就重啟該電廠舉行的公投，在約30%的投票率下獲得約74%的支持，未達通過所需的門檻，因此未獲通過。經濟部其後核准臺電的一項可行性研究，認定國聖與馬鞍山可以重啟、金山則不可，臺電並於2026年3月向核能安全委員會提交再運轉計畫。管制審查預估需時18至24個月。
This is the structural fact underneath every claim Vigil makes about Taiwanese energy resilience, and it is a completed change rather than a trend: nuclear output is zero and has been since this date. It matters for the pressure system because it removes the one generation source that does not depend on a continuously arriving cargo, and because the restart question is now being contested through two separate tracks at once — a regulatory review at the Nuclear Safety Commission and a political one, with the Legislative Yuan approving a further referendum proposal in August 2026. Vigil records the status and the process. It does not forecast whether any reactor restarts, and no restart should be read as operational or imminent — on the published review timeline none is possible before roughly 2028.
信心：高
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