Ce qu’a été cette campagne
Since October 2022 Russia has struck Ukraine's generation, transmission and gas infrastructure in seasonal waves timed to winter. The campaign's object is civilian and industrial endurance rather than any battlefield effect, and its measure is interceptor stocks and repair capacity rather than territory.
This campaign is where the war reaches the civilian population that lives furthest from the front, and where the military, economic and humanitarian dimensions of the module are the same subject. It determines whether homes have heat and water in winter, whether industry can operate, how much of Ukraine's budget goes to imported electricity and repair rather than defence, and whether displaced people return. It is also the clearest instance in the war of an economic attack conducted by military means, and the reason interceptor supply is a humanitarian variable.
Confiance : modérée Au 2026-08Revu le 2026-08-26
Synthèse
Beginning in October 2022, Russia opened a sustained strike campaign against Ukraine's electricity generation, transmission infrastructure and gas storage, using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and large numbers of one-way attack drones of the Iranian-derived design it now produces domestically. The campaign runs in waves, concentrated before and during winter, and has been repeated every year since. Its logic is cost-exchange as much as destruction: cheap drones force the expenditure of expensive interceptors, and saturation raids are designed to exceed the number of simultaneous engagements the air defence can handle. Ukraine's response has combined layered air defence with decentralised generation, imports from the European grid, and repair cycles that have become one of the war's least visible and most consequential logistical efforts. The module does not publish which parts of the system are currently degraded.
Objectifs déclarés
Ce que disent les participants. Chaque entrée cite où la position a été exprimée ; Vigil consigne qu’elle a été exprimée, non qu’elle est vraie.
Russia describes the strikes as directed at military and military-industrial targets and at infrastructure supporting the Ukrainian armed forces.
Recorded as the stated position. The UN human rights monitoring mission and other bodies have documented civilian harm from these strikes; the module does not treat the stated characterisation as established.
Ukraine describes the campaign as deliberate targeting of civilian energy infrastructure and has pursued it as such in international forums.
Objectifs évalués
La lecture de Vigil, assortie d’un degré de confiance. Tenue structurellement à l’écart des positions déclarées, afin qu’une évaluation ne puisse jamais être publiée comme l’objectif déclaré de quelqu’un.
The seasonal timing — concentrated before and during winter, repeated annually — indicates an objective of civilian endurance rather than a battlefield effect, which no analysis has been able to demonstrate.
The use of cheap mass-produced drones alongside scarce precision missiles indicates a deliberate cost-exchange strategy against air defence rather than a purely destructive one.
Forces principales
- Aerospace Forces (VKS) Force principale · Confiance : élevée · au 2026-06
- Long-Range Aviation Force principale · Confiance : modérée · au 2026-06
Long-range aviation is the delivery means for the cruise-missile component of the campaign.
Forces adverses
- Surface-to-Air Missile Forces Force adverse · Confiance : élevée · au 2026-06
Ground-based air defence is the campaign's principal counter and the element whose munition supply constrains the whole response.
- Air Force Force adverse · Confiance : élevée · au 2026-06
Soutiens et acteurs extérieurs
- Strategic Missile Forces Supporting force · Confidence: Low · as of 2026-06
Recorded at low confidence: the ballistic component of these strikes is attributed to several Russian structures in open reporting and the module does not resolve the attribution.
- Territorial Defence Forces Force d’appui · Confiance : modérée · au 2026-06
Mobile fire groups against low-flying drones became a standing task, and are the cheap end of the cost-exchange answer.
The first winter campaign
The opening waves struck transmission and generation across the country and produced nationwide rolling blackouts. Ukraine held the system together with emergency repair and rationing, and the expected collapse in civilian morale did not occur.
Adaptation on both sides
Ukraine dispersed and hardened what it could and expanded imports from the European grid; Russia shifted from broad transmission attacks toward concentrated strikes on generation, and raised drone volumes as domestic production scaled.
Saturation raids and the interceptor problem
Raid sizes grew as drone production scaled, with the explicit effect of exceeding simultaneous engagement capacity. Interceptor availability rather than radar coverage became the binding constraint, which tied civilian energy conditions directly to external munition supply.
From generation to the wires between it
The campaign's centre of gravity became visible one layer further down the system. Generation had absorbed four years of attack and been repeatedly rebuilt; substations and high-voltage transmission are cheaper to break, slower to replace, and decide whether surviving generation and imported electricity reach anyone at all. The mechanism is documented in its clearest published form at the Zaporizhzhia site, where a main line repaired under an internationally brokered ceasefire in June 2026 still could not be energised because the substation supplying it had been destroyed the month before. This module does not assess the state of Ukraine's transmission network, and none of this is a claim about it — but the IAEA's nuclear-safety reporting, which is published weekly and names no vulnerabilities that strikes have not already found, establishes that the layer is being attacked and what it costs when it fails.
Issue et situation actuelle
Continuing and unresolved. The campaign has not produced the systemic collapse or political effect it appears designed to achieve — Ukraine has kept the system operating through four winters — and it has imposed very large and cumulative costs in generation capacity, repair, imported electricity and civilian conditions. Its effectiveness is best described as high in cost imposition and low in coercion, and the balance is set each winter by interceptor supply.
Adaptations observées
Ukraine moved from centralised to substantially decentralised generation and expanded interconnection with the European grid, reducing the effect of any single strike wave.
Mobile gun-based and electronic-warfare counter-drone methods were adopted at scale because engaging cheap drones with expensive interceptors is not sustainable.
Russia shifted strike packages toward larger drone volumes with fewer cruise missiles as domestic production scaled, changing the defensive problem from precision interception to volume.
Implications politiques
Makes air-defence munition supply from partners a visible domestic issue in Ukraine and a recurring test of coalition commitment.
Implications économiques
Generation loss constrains industrial output and forces electricity imports and repair spending that compete directly with defence in the budget.
Implications humanitaires
Determines heating, water pumping, hospital continuity and lighting for the civilian population in winter, and is a principal factor in return decisions by displaced people.
Événements liés
Lieux
Lieux que ce module publie déjà comme repères cartographiques, listés parce que la campagne les concerne. Pas une zone d’opérations.
Ce qui reste inconnu
- The module does not publish which parts of the energy system are currently degraded, and no claim here should be read as indicating current system state.
- Damage assessments at facility level are not published by Ukraine for security reasons; system-level effects are described from operator statements and international agency analysis.
- Interception rates are reported by Ukrainian authorities and are not independently verifiable; they are also a contested information space.
- Russian production rates for one-way attack drones are assessed by several governments with a wide spread between estimates.
Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi
- The campaign can be read as coercion aimed at civilian and political will, or as a resource-denial campaign against Ukraine's defence industry and rail electrification, which the same strikes also affect. Russian statements assert the second; the seasonal timing fits the first better, and both effects occur regardless of intent.
- Ukraine's continued winter functioning can be read as successful defence and repair, or as evidence that the campaign's scale has always been below what would be required to collapse a national grid. The distinction matters because the two imply different consequences if strike volumes rise further.
Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.
Questions Watch que cette campagne concerne
Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cette campagne, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.
- InfrastructuresLes réparations et les importations peuvent-elles aller plus vite que la campagne de frappes avant l’hiver ?
- DiplomatiqueUne retenue dans les frappes survit-elle à la visite qui l’a produite ?
- MilitaireL’approvisionnement en intercepteurs parvient-il à l’Ukraine plus vite qu’il n’est consommé ?
Voir dans Explorer la force qui conduit cette campagne Interactif : sélectionnez cette fiche et suivez ce qui s’y rattache.
Évalué au — 2026-08 Dernière revue — 2026-08-26