Ce qu’a été cette campagne
Ukraine has struck Russian refineries, airbases, logistics and naval assets at progressively greater depth since 2022, using domestically produced long-range drones alongside a small number of supplied missiles. The object is Russia's capacity to fund and sustain the war rather than its forces at the front.
This campaign is Ukraine's principal means of imposing cost on Russia away from a front where it is at a manpower disadvantage, and it is the clearest case in the war of a smaller power building an independent strategic capability rather than waiting for one to be supplied. It connects directly to the module's economic content — refining and export capacity is where Russian war revenue is generated — and to the naval campaign that reopened Ukraine's own export corridor. It is also the sharpest test of escalation management by Ukraine's partners.
Confiance : modérée Au 2026-08Revu le 2026-08-23
Synthèse
Alongside the fighting on the line, Ukraine has developed and expanded a campaign against targets deep inside Russian-held territory and inside Russia itself. Its most consequential component is domestically produced long-range one-way attack drones, which removed Ukraine's dependence on partner-supplied missiles and on the political permissions attached to them. Target classes have included oil refining and export infrastructure, military airfields hosting the aircraft used in the strike campaign against Ukraine, ammunition and fuel storage, and the Black Sea Fleet. The campaign's political dimension is inseparable from its military one: for much of the war, partner-supplied weapons carried restrictions on use inside Russia which were relaxed in stages, and the growth of the domestic drone programme was in part a response to that constraint.
Objectifs déclarés
Ce que disent les participants. Chaque entrée cite où la position a été exprimée ; Vigil consigne qu’elle a été exprimée, non qu’elle est vraie.
Ukraine states that its strikes are directed at military and military-economic targets contributing to the war against it, and asserts a right to strike such targets on Russian territory.
Objectifs évalués
La lecture de Vigil, assortie d’un degré de confiance. Tenue structurellement à l’écart des positions déclarées, afin qu’une évaluation ne puisse jamais être publiée comme l’objectif déclaré de quelqu’un.
The concentration on refining and export infrastructure indicates a revenue-denial objective rather than a fuel-denial one: Russia's constraint is what it earns, not what it can burn.
The domestic long-range drone programme was accelerated substantially to escape the political conditionality attached to supplied missiles, an assessment supported by the sequence of restriction changes and capability announcements.
Forces principales
- Unmanned Systems Forces Force principale · Confiance : modérée · au 2026-06
The Unmanned Systems Forces are the institutional home of much of the long-range drone effort, though attribution of individual strikes is rarely official.
- Uncrewed Maritime Forces Force principale · Confiance : modérée · au 2025-12
Naval drone units are the component that produced the campaign's clearest strategic result against the Black Sea Fleet.
Soutiens et acteurs extérieurs
- Air Force Force d’appui · Confiance : modérée · au 2026-06
Delivery platform for supplied stand-off missiles, whose use has been governed by partner restrictions rather than by capability alone.
Reported participants
- Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR/GUR) Reported participant · Confidence: Moderate · as of 2026-06
Military intelligence is repeatedly reported as conducting deep operations including maritime drone attacks. Ukraine rarely confirms attribution, so the role is recorded as reported.
Parties touchées
- Air Force Partie touchée · Confiance : modérée · au 2026-06
Airfields hosting the aircraft used in strikes against Ukraine have been a recurring target class.
- Black Sea Fleet Affected party · Confidence: High · as of 2024-06
Early and improvised reach
Attacks on Crimea and southern Russian airbases and on the Kerch bridge demonstrated that depth was achievable before any dedicated capability existed, largely through adapted systems and special operations.
Naval drones and the Black Sea result
Uncrewed surface vessels combined with missile strikes made the western Black Sea untenable for the Russian fleet, producing the campaign's clearest strategic effect and reopening Ukraine's own export route.
Long-range drones and the refining sector
Domestically produced long-range drones enabled repeated strikes on oil refining and export infrastructure at depths previously unreachable, and on airfields used in the campaign against Ukraine's grid. By 2026 the demonstrated reach extended to Tatarstan, roughly 1,200 km from the border, and the cumulative effect on refining throughput had become visible in Russia's own domestic fuel market rather than only in its export earnings.
From refining to the export terminals
In mid-August 2026 the campaign's object widened from the processing tier to the export tier. Novorossiysk — the Black Sea port through which reporting puts up to a third of Russian grain exports — was struck on 12 August, with its naval base and two grain terminals hit and the terminals suspending operations; the Baltic oil export port of Ust-Luga was struck on the night of 13–14 August. Refining and export are different constraints: one determines what Russia can burn, the other what it can sell and to whom. The grain strike also brought third-country buyers into the campaign's effects for the first time at this scale, and produced a visible movement in wheat futures.
Issue et situation actuelle
Continuing, with one decisive result and one unresolved one. The maritime component achieved a genuine strategic outcome: the Black Sea Fleet was pushed from the western Black Sea and Ukraine reopened a shipping corridor without a negotiated agreement. The campaign against refining and export infrastructure has imposed recurring disruption and repair costs without demonstrably changing Russian fiscal capacity, and whether cumulative effect or single-event effect is the right measure remains contested. What 2026 added is a second and different kind of effect, which the campaign's assessed objective did not anticipate: refining throughput fell far enough that the shortfall reached Russia's domestic fuel market as rationing, eased fuel standards and imported product, while crude production and crude export earnings were largely undisturbed. The module records that as an observed effect. It does not restate the objective as fuel denial, because nothing published establishes that the domestic consequence is the aim rather than a by-product of attacking the same facilities for revenue reasons.
Adaptations observées
Ukraine built an independent long-range strike capability domestically rather than continuing to depend on supplied missiles and the permissions attached to them.
Russia dispersed aviation to airfields at greater depth and expanded point defences around refining and export infrastructure, which raised the cost of the campaign without ending it.
Faced with a processing shortfall rather than a resource one, Russia answered on the demand and specification side rather than the supply side: banning petrol, diesel and jet exports, relaxing fuel-quality standards in stages, permitting purchase limits and number-plate rationing, and importing refined product — including, in August 2026, a gasoline cargo from an Indian refinery part owned by Rosneft. Each of these is a published measure, and together they are the clearest public statement of which constraint the Russian state treats as binding.
Implications politiques
Each expansion of range and target class has tested partner escalation tolerance, and the sequence of restriction changes is a record of where that tolerance actually sits.
Implications militaires
Demonstrates that a state without a strategic air force can build meaningful strategic reach from cheap uncrewed systems within a war.
Implications économiques
Refining and export infrastructure is where Russian war revenue is generated, so disruption there is an attack on fiscal capacity rather than on battlefield supply. The 2026 data separates the two revenue streams that phrase conceals: crude export earnings held broadly steady while refined product export loadings fell to a record low, so what the campaign reaches is the processed end of the barrel rather than the barrel.
Événements liés
Lieux
Lieux que ce module publie déjà comme repères cartographiques, listés parce que la campagne les concerne. Pas une zone d’opérations.
Ce qui reste inconnu
- Ukraine rarely confirms attribution for strikes inside Russia, so the attribution of individual actions to specific structures is reported rather than established.
- Damage assessments rest on satellite imagery and open-source analysis; Russian authorities minimise reported effects and Ukrainian claims maximise them.
- Russian refining throughput data has been published less completely since 2022, so the campaign's cumulative economic effect is estimated rather than measured.
- The module publishes no assessment of current defensive coverage of any target class, and nothing here should be read as such.
Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi
- Falls in Russian refining output can be attributed to strikes, to sanctions on equipment and spare parts, or to deferred maintenance. All three operate simultaneously and published data does not separate them. Reuters cites all three at once for the 2026 shortages, alongside elevated seasonal demand.
- The 2026 domestic fuel shortages can be read as the campaign finally producing a strategic effect, or as an ordinary summer peak in a system that had no spare capacity left to absorb one. The second reading is testable and cheap to test: it predicts the limits lift with the season.
- The Black Sea Fleet's withdrawal from the western basin can be read as a result of the strike campaign or as a rational repositioning that would have happened anyway once the threat existed. The distinction matters for how much the campaign's success generalises to other target classes.
Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.
Débit de raffinage russe et niveaux d’exportation de produits
The measurable consequence, published with a lag and partially. Sustained change matters; single-strike outages do not.
Volumes d’exportation de produits par rapport aux volumes d’exportation de brut
The pair, not either figure alone. Crude steady with product falling is the signature of a refining constraint; both falling together would be a production problem and a different campaign result.
Savoir si le rationnement intérieur du carburant en Russie survit à la saison des déplacements
The cleanest available test of strike effect against seasonal demand, and it resolves by about October without either government publishing anything.
Restrictions sur les armes fournies par les partenaires
Their relaxation has been incremental and reversible, and remains a better indicator of coalition risk appetite than any declaratory statement.
Profondeur de l’allonge ukrainienne démontrée
Range growth has been the campaign's clearest trend. Its ceiling is a production and guidance question rather than a political one now.
Redistribution de la défense aérienne russe
Defending economic infrastructure competes with defending the front. How that trade-off is resolved is informative about Russian priorities.
Questions Watch que cette campagne concerne
Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cette campagne, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.
- DiplomatiqueUne retenue dans les frappes survit-elle à la visite qui l’a produite ?
- MilitaireL’approvisionnement en intercepteurs parvient-il à l’Ukraine plus vite qu’il n’est consommé ?
- ÉconomiqueFrapper la flotte fantôme fait-il réellement bouger les volumes d’exportation russes ?
- MilitaireL’interception des missiles balistiques se rétablit-elle, et quelle explication cela conforte-t-il ?
Voir dans Explorer la force qui conduit cette campagne Interactif : sélectionnez cette fiche et suivez ce qui s’y rattache.
Évalué au — 2026-08 Dernière revue — 2026-08-23