Czym jest ten system
Gold is roughly 80 per cent of Mali's exports, concentrated in the western belt around Kayes and Kéniéba, and the junta has squeezed the sector hard; Niger's uranium at Arlit passed to state operational control in December 2024 and was declared nationalised in June 2025. Both are fiscal bases under pressure.
The fiscal base of two of the three AES states, and the arena in which the juntas' terms with foreign operators are being set.
Pewność: umiarkowana Stan na 2026-08Przejrzano 2026-10-03
System
- Omówienie
- In Mali, a 2023 mining code raising the state's take was followed by a two-year confrontation with Barrick over the Loulo–Gounkoto complex — provisional administration, an ICSID arbitration, and a settlement in November 2025 in which the company paid roughly US$430m in total, withdrew its claims and accepted the code in exchange for a ten-year permit extension and restored operational control, regained on 18 December 2025. In Niger, Orano halted output at Arlit in October 2024, the mine passed to Nigerien operational control in December 2024, nationalisation was announced in June 2025, and an ICSID tribunal has ordered Niger not to sell the stockpiled uranium pending Orano's claims — an order the state has said on television it intends to disregard. The signal to foreign operators across the Sahel is the module's reading of both.
- Current state · as of 2026-08
- Mali: Loulo–Gounkoto restarted at the end of 2025, permit renewed in February 2026, 2026 guidance of 260,000 to 290,000 attributable ounces. Niger: the uranium dispute unresolved and conducted in public, as of August 2026.
- Commodities and outputs
- Złoto
Węzły
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- ArlitObszar wydobycia · szeroki region
Niger's uranium district, under state operational control since December 2024.
- KayesDuże miasto
- Zachodni pas złotonośny (Kayes–Kéniéba)Obszar wydobycia · szeroki region
The industrial and artisanal goldfields of western Mali — the state's fiscal base and an emerging conflict frontier.
- KéniébaObszar wydobycia · szeroki region
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Korytarze importu paliwa do MaliFuel imports · 6 nodes · 5 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesTrzy trasy lądowe zaspokajają całe zapotrzebowanie państwa śródlądowego na paliwo — a od września 2025 r. są celem ogłoszonej blokady.
Organisations that run it
- BarrickMining company · ActiveThe operator of Loulo–Gounkoto, the largest industrial gold complex in Mali's western belt, which regained operational control in December 2025 after a two-year confrontation with the state.
- SOMAÏRMining company · Status uncertainThe operator of the Arlit uranium mine — 63.4 per cent Orano, 36.6 per cent the state's SOPAMIN on paper, under Nigerien operational control since December 2024 and declared nationalised in June 2025.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
Foreign operators' willingness to work under the new codes. Industrial output in both states depends on operators who have been squeezed, arbitrated against and, in Niger, nationalised; the Barrick settlement is the module's measure of what terms hold.
Gold revenue. Roughly 80 per cent of Mali's exports and the state's indispensable revenue.
An ICSID tribunal has ordered Niger not to sell or transfer the stockpiled uranium pending Orano's claims.
The Loulo permit renewed for ten years and transferred to Barrick's local subsidiary.
Barrick regained operational control of Loulo–Gounkoto; production resumed in the last days of the year.
Niger announced the nationalisation of SOMAÏR, the Arlit operator.
Łańcuchy transmisji przez ten system
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Brak bezpieczeństwa na drogach → zaopatrzenie rynków → głód i załamanie usługCivilian impact · as of 2026-07
- asset Potwierdzone
- disruption Potwierdzone
- exposure Potwierdzone
- significance Wiarygodne narażenie
- Blokada paliwowa → koszty transportu → narażenie w zakresie żywności, energii i finansów publicznychEconomic exposure · as of 2026-08
- asset Potwierdzone
- disruption Potwierdzone
- exposure Potwierdzone
- significance Wiarygodne narażenie
Watch questions bearing on it
- Czy rząd jest w stanie zaopatrzyć to, co utrzymuje?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Czy presja Państwa Islamskiego – Sahel w zachodnim Nigrze sięga przedpola stolicy i infrastruktury eksportowej?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Czy trzy państwa stają się bardziej zależne od rosyjskiego zaopatrzenia?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Czy presja na korytarz rośnie, czy słabnie?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Czy konfederacja robi cokolwiek, czego nie mogłyby zrobić jej państwa członkowskie?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Czy państwo odzyska utraconą pozycję?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
Actors and arrangements
Co pozostaje nieznane
- No 2026 produced-ounce figure against guidance was read; Arlit output since the 2024 halt is not published in a form the module has read.
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Ocena na dzień — 2026-08 Ostatni przegląd — 2026-10-03