Was dieses System ist
Gold is roughly 80 per cent of Mali's exports, concentrated in the western belt around Kayes and Kéniéba, and the junta has squeezed the sector hard; Niger's uranium at Arlit passed to state operational control in December 2024 and was declared nationalised in June 2025. Both are fiscal bases under pressure.
The fiscal base of two of the three AES states, and the arena in which the juntas' terms with foreign operators are being set.
Konfidenz: mittel Stand 2026-08Überprüft am 2026-10-03
Das System
- Überblick
- In Mali, a 2023 mining code raising the state's take was followed by a two-year confrontation with Barrick over the Loulo–Gounkoto complex — provisional administration, an ICSID arbitration, and a settlement in November 2025 in which the company paid roughly US$430m in total, withdrew its claims and accepted the code in exchange for a ten-year permit extension and restored operational control, regained on 18 December 2025. In Niger, Orano halted output at Arlit in October 2024, the mine passed to Nigerien operational control in December 2024, nationalisation was announced in June 2025, and an ICSID tribunal has ordered Niger not to sell the stockpiled uranium pending Orano's claims — an order the state has said on television it intends to disregard. The signal to foreign operators across the Sahel is the module's reading of both.
- Current state · as of 2026-08
- Mali: Loulo–Gounkoto restarted at the end of 2025, permit renewed in February 2026, 2026 guidance of 260,000 to 290,000 attributable ounces. Niger: the uranium dispute unresolved and conducted in public, as of August 2026.
- Commodities and outputs
- Gold
Knoten
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- ArlitBergbaugebiet · weite Region
Niger's uranium district, under state operational control since December 2024.
- KayesGroßstadt
- Westlicher Goldgürtel (Kayes–Kéniéba)Bergbaugebiet · weite Region
The industrial and artisanal goldfields of western Mali — the state's fiscal base and an emerging conflict frontier.
- KéniébaBergbaugebiet · weite Region
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Malis Korridore für TreibstoffimporteFuel imports · 6 nodes · 5 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesDrei Landrouten decken den gesamten Treibstoffbedarf eines Binnenstaates — und seit September 2025 sind sie Ziel einer erklärten Blockade.
Organisations that run it
- BarrickMining company · ActiveThe operator of Loulo–Gounkoto, the largest industrial gold complex in Mali's western belt, which regained operational control in December 2025 after a two-year confrontation with the state.
- SOMAÏRMining company · Status uncertainThe operator of the Arlit uranium mine — 63.4 per cent Orano, 36.6 per cent the state's SOPAMIN on paper, under Nigerien operational control since December 2024 and declared nationalised in June 2025.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
Foreign operators' willingness to work under the new codes. Industrial output in both states depends on operators who have been squeezed, arbitrated against and, in Niger, nationalised; the Barrick settlement is the module's measure of what terms hold.
Gold revenue. Roughly 80 per cent of Mali's exports and the state's indispensable revenue.
An ICSID tribunal has ordered Niger not to sell or transfer the stockpiled uranium pending Orano's claims.
The Loulo permit renewed for ten years and transferred to Barrick's local subsidiary.
Barrick regained operational control of Loulo–Gounkoto; production resumed in the last days of the year.
Niger announced the nationalisation of SOMAÏR, the Arlit operator.
Übertragungsketten durch dieses System
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Unsicherheit auf den Straßen → Marktversorgung → Hunger und Zusammenbruch öffentlicher DiensteCivilian impact · as of 2026-07
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Treibstoffblockade → Transportkosten → Exposition bei Nahrungsmitteln, Energie und StaatsfinanzenEconomic exposure · as of 2026-08
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Plausible Exposition
Watch questions bearing on it
- Kann die Regierung versorgen, was sie hält?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Reicht der Druck von Islamic State Sahel im Westen Nigers bis an die Zugänge zur Hauptstadt und an die Exportinfrastruktur?active · Assessment changed 2026-09-27
- Werden die drei Staaten abhängiger von russischer Versorgung?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Verschärft oder lockert sich der Druck auf die Korridore?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Leistet die Konföderation etwas, das ihre Mitglieder nicht könnten?active · No material change 2026-09-27
- Stellt der Staat eine verlorene Stellung wieder her?active · Movement observed 2026-09-27
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
Actors and arrangements
Was unbekannt bleibt
- No 2026 produced-ounce figure against guidance was read; Arlit output since the 2024 halt is not published in a form the module has read.
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Eingeschätzt zum Stand — 2026-08 Zuletzt überprüft — 2026-10-03