Russie — Les États-Unis et la guerre en Ukraine

Synthèse

From the February 2025 call between the two presidents, the diplomacy of the war moved onto a bilateral United States–Russia track. Its instruments have been personal: a presidential envoy meeting President Putin and the Kremlin's economic negotiator, Dmitriev, meeting the envoy in Washington; the Alaska summit of 15 August 2025; and the 28-point plan of November 2025, drafted in the channel and reworked with Ukraine and Europe at Geneva. The Geneva trilateral format of February 2026 brought Ukraine in with a deadline attached; the track has since produced the capitals-only strike pause of September 2026, the energy truce announced without terms on 11 October 2026, the Oleshky humanitarian ceasefire of 23 October and, on 21 October, a Kremlin statement of readiness in principle to resume trilateral talks in mid-November on a post-war security system. Alongside the meetings, the United States has used sanctions relaxation as an instrument in the channel — the Russian diesel licence of 9 October 2026 and the waiver of the sanctions act's tariffs on 16 October — each welcomed by the Russian side. Russia's stated requirements, withdrawal from four regions and no NATO membership, are reported unchanged through every round.

Pourquoi c’est important

Because it is where the terms are being written, and Ukraine's part in it is intermittent. Every observable in the negotiation-architecture question — a published text, a monitoring body, a guarantee in force, a territorial formula in print — is read against this track first, and the track's record is formats and channels rather than instruments. Its economic half matters separately: sanctions relaxation offered in the channel is the clearest demonstration that the United States treats its designation architecture as negotiable, which is what the sanctions relationship records cannot show on their own.

Événements associés

• Le sommet d’Alaska — une rencontre présidentielle sans cessez-le-feu 15 août 2025

  Diplomatique · Politique

• Un format de négociation trilatéral, et une échéance qui lui est attachée Févr. 2026

  Diplomatique · Politique

• Le plan en 28 points et le processus de négociation qu’il a ouvert Nov. 2025 – mars 2026

  Diplomatic · Political · Territorial change

• Une pause qui couvre deux capitales et rien d’autre 5–8 sept. 2026

  Diplomatique · Militaire

• Washington autorise le gazole russe et Moscou ouvre sa propre interdiction 9–10 oct. 2026

  Sanctions · Économie · Énergie

• Washington fixe les droits de douane de la loi de sanctions et y renonce dans le même décret 16 oct. 2026

  Sanctions · Économie · Politique

• Un cessez-le-feu local pour Oleshky, occupée par la Russie, entre en vigueur 23–31 oct. 2026

  Humanitaire · Militaire · Diplomatique

Ce qui reste inconnu

• The 28-point plan and the revised Geneva document have never been published; their terms are known through reporting and are not reproduced here as positions.
• What is said in the envoy meetings is known from each side's readout, and the readouts regularly disagree on scope.
• Whether the sanctions-relaxation steps are concessions in the channel or separately motivated is reported, not established.

Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi

• The track can be read as a settlement process that has not yet produced a text, or as a channel both sides keep open for its own sake — Washington to show diplomacy, Moscow to secure relaxations without conceding terms. The absence of any instrument after twenty months is consistent with both.

Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.