The war between Burkina Faso's transitional authorities and JNIM since the movement crossed the border in 2017: the siege of Djibo and other northern towns, mass mobilisation of civilian auxiliaries after the 2022 coups, and a state that has stopped publishing the figures by which the war is measured.
Un arrangement symétrique : il se lit de la même façon des deux côtés. Rédigé une seule fois, sur une seule fiche.
L’arrangement
- Statut
- ActiveIn force and operating. Says nothing about how well it is working, or about which way it is heading.Last material change: 2026.
- Ce qu’il couvre
- Lutte antiterroristeDéfenseCatégories que l’arrangement est documenté comme incluant. Ce n’est pas une mesure : une relation qui en couvre davantage est décrite plus en détail, non tenue plus fermement.
Synthèse
JNIM's Burkinabe front grew from cross-border raids into a campaign of sieges: Djibo has been encircled since February 2022, and dozens of towns have been cut off for periods. The September 2022 coup that brought Captain Traoré to power was justified by the war's course; his answer was mass recruitment of the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland, a rupture with France and alignment with Russia, and the dissolution of political parties in 2026. Displacement is the largest in the region and the least measured — no consolidated count since March 2023. JNIM has said it would talk; the authorities have not. Neither side publishes what it controls, and the movement's influence over rural areas of the north and east is widely reported and nowhere mapped by Vigil.
Pourquoi c’est important
Burkina Faso is where the Sahel war is most advanced and least visible. The relationship decides whether the AES's second state holds, whether the militia model that replaced the army in much of the country can be reversed, and whether the region's largest displaced population has anywhere to return to.
Événements associés
- L’encerclement de Djibo commence 16 – 17 févr. 2022
Military · Humanitarian · Territorial change
- Deux coups d’État au Burkina Faso portent Traoré au pouvoir Janv. et sept. 2022
Politique · Changement de dirigeant
- Le Burkina Faso dissout tous les partis politiques 29 janv. 2026
Politique
Ce qui reste inconnu
- No consolidated displacement or casualty count has been published since March 2023; the war's scale is inferred from partial reporting.
- What JNIM offers or demands of Ouagadougou is reported through its own statements and is not verified.
- Vigil publishes no strength, disposition or area-of-control claim for either party, and the militia structure is described only at the level the state itself has published.
Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi
- The authorities' refusal to publish figures can be read as concealment of a losing war or as a wartime information policy applied uniformly; the dissolution of parties in 2026 is consistent with both.
Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.
Questions Watch que cette relation concerne
Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cette relation, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.
Toutes les relations du module Sahel Ouvrir dans Explorer
Évalué au — 2026-08 Dernière revue — 2026-09-08