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Fiche de relation

Arménie → Organisation du traité de sécurité collective

Une appartenance à laquelle personne n’a mis fin, gelée par un membre qui dit qu’il serait heureux d’en être exclu.

Appartenance institutionnelle Depuis 1992

Suspendue
Évalué au
2026-08
Dernière revue
2026-09-01

ÉvaluationConfiance élevée

Un arrangement décrit, non une notation. Vigil ne publie aucune mesure de la force, de la chaleur ou de l’hostilité d’une relation, et aucune relation sur ce site ne porte de score, de tendance ni de sens d’évolution. Ce qui est consigné, c’est ce que couvre l’arrangement, quand il a commencé, ce qui l’a modifié, et avec quelle solidité chacun de ces points est établi.

En résumé

Armenia's membership of the Russian-led collective security organisation, frozen since February 2024 with contributions unpaid for a third year. It has not been withdrawn, suspended or revoked by anyone, and both sides are waiting for the other to bear the cost of ending it.

Collective Security Treaty Organization has as a member Armenia. A directional arrangement: the two parties do not hold the same position in it. Authored once and read from both ends.

L’arrangement

Statut
SuspendedFormally or effectively suspended by at least one party, without having been ended.Last material change: 2026-08.
Ce qu’il couvre
DéfenseInstitutionnelJuridique et conventionnelCatégories que l’arrangement est documenté comme incluant. Ce n’est pas une mesure : une relation qui en couvre davantage est décrite plus en détail, non tenue plus fermement.

Synthèse

Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization in February 2024, having concluded that the alliance did not act for it in 2020 or 2023. It has not withdrawn. Contributions have gone unpaid for a third consecutive year, and on 17 August 2026 CSTO officials warned that Article 25 of the charter can cost a non-paying member quota posts and voting rights — a decision requiring consensus at the November council. On 24 August 2026 the prime minister said he had no intention of resuming active participation and would be glad if Armenia were expelled; the Kremlin's spokesman called the remark incomprehensible. The membership therefore stands, unexercised and unpaid, with neither party willing to be the one that ends it.

Pourquoi c’est important

It is the clearest structural expression of Armenia's realignment and the most commonly misread thing in the module. A frozen membership is neither an alliance nor a departure, and describing it as either misstates Armenia's position — which is precisely to hold an option open while paying none of the costs of exercising or abandoning it. The November council is the observable.

Événements associés

Ce qui reste inconnu

  • This module records Armenia's membership standing and not the date it began. `validFrom` is given as 1992, the post-Soviet baseline, and is context rather than a claim these sources establish. The load-bearing dates here are the February 2024 freeze and the unpaid contributions since.
  • Whether the November council will act under Article 25, and whether a consensus for any action exists, is not knowable from outside.
  • Armenia's characterisation of the alliance's conduct in 2020 and 2023 is recorded as its stated basis for the freeze. What the treaty obliged in either case is contested and is not resolved here.

Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi

  • Freezing rather than withdrawing can be read as a deliberately preserved option — a relationship Armenia could resume if its security environment changed — or as the absence of any domestic or external benefit from formal exit. The behaviour is identical under both readings.

Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.

Questions Watch que cette relation concerne

Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cette relation, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.

Toutes les relations du module Caucase Ouvrir dans Explorer

Évalué au — 2026-08 Dernière revue — 2026-09-01