Ukraine–Russia
Interstate warAn interstate war reshaping European security.
24Key events on the timeline
Conflict Context Platform
News tells you what happened. Vigil explains why.
Maps, timelines, actors, forces and sources — connected into structured, non-operational context for every conflict Vigil covers.
- VERIFIED BRIEFS
- SOURCES & CONFIDENCE SHOWN
- CONTEXT, NOT TARGETING
Latest verified brief
Taiwan Strait baseline — 20 July 2026
The module's baseline picture at launch. The headline number moved down and the pressure did not: reported PLA air activity has run closer to its pre-2024 baseline through 2026 while coast guard presence widened and economic and informational pressure continued, including against Japan. On the deterrence side of the ledger the movement was larger — Taiwan's special defence budget passed at 38% below the executive's request, and US arms transfers slowed with a reported package left unsigned and publicly described as leverage with Beijing. Semiconductor concentration eased at the margin as TSMC accelerated its Arizona buildout, and Taiwan continued building out cable and satellite resilience. No delta section appears below: this is the first brief for this module, so there is nothing to compare it against.
- Reported air activity returns toward its pre-2024 baselinemoderate
- Coast guard presence continues around Kinmen and reportedly widensmoderate
- Special defence budget passes at NT$780bn — well below the requesthigh
Current coverage
All five published modules are reviewed weekly, with a verified brief published when developments warrant one. Baseline reference pages are under progressive source review — which is why the latest brief can come from any module.
Vigil currently covers 5 published conflict modules: Ukraine–Russia in Eastern Europe; Mali in Sahel / West Africa; Caucasus in South Caucasus / North Caucasus; Syria in Levant / Eastern Mediterranean; Taiwan in Indo-Pacific / East Asia. Full details in the coverage cards below.
Coverage orientation only — markers are approximate regional anchors for published modules, not conflict extents or current activity.
Mali: War in the Sahel
Conflict systemA fragmented conflict system with no single front.
25Key events on the timeline
The Caucasus: Unresolved Wars and Regional Power
Regional systemUnresolved wars inside a changing regional system.
39Key events on the timeline
Syria: Transition, Kurdish Autonomy and Regional Power
Regional transitionA civil-war legacy shaping a regional transition.
41Key events on the timeline
Taiwan Strait: Deterrence, Pressure and Strategic Competition
Strategic flashpointA pressure system where deterrence, not fighting, is the subject.
27Key events on the timeline
How Vigil works
Developments
What changed and why it matters — verified briefs with sources and confidence.
Theatre Map
Where events and strategic systems sit on the ground.
Strategic Profiles
Who the principal actors are, and how they align.
Force Atlas
How forces, formations and equipment connect.
Economy
How the war transmits through trade, energy, industry and sanctions.
Sources & Confidence
What is sourced, how confident Vigil is, and when records were reviewed.
Need the terms first? Use the glossary for short definitions of conflict-analysis language. Each module opens with its own guided reading order, and the full editorial standards — grading, corrections and review cadence — are in the methodology.
Built for clarity, not speed
Vigil does not try to win the breaking-news race. It prioritises verified, dated, cross-linked information; explicit uncertainty; transparent corrections; and broad, non-operational context. When reliable information is not available, Vigil says so.