Czym była ta kampania
The Israel–Hezbollah war from 2 March 2026, fought inside the war with Iran: strikes across Lebanon, a ground operation and an Israeli forward defence line up to 10 km deep. A ceasefire has held since 19 June, Israel stays in the south, and the June Framework trades withdrawal for disarmament.
The war re-founded the Israel–Lebanon front. It replaced five Israeli positions with a zone of tens of villages, moved the two states into direct negotiation outside the 2024 Mechanism and the Security Council, and produced an instrument — the Trilateral Framework — that sequences Israeli withdrawal after verified disarmament with no timeline. It also showed that the Lebanon front is a function of the wider confrontation with Iran: Hezbollah entered because of the Iran war, and the ceasefire came through a US–Iran memorandum. With UNIFIL ending operations on 31 December 2026, the forward defence line is the condition the front will be in when the international presence goes.
Pewność: wysoka Stan na 2026-10Przejrzano 2026-10-12
Podsumowanie
Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at Israel on 2 March 2026, in the opening days of the war with Iran, and Israel responded with air strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and southern Lebanon that extended across the country. The same day Lebanon's cabinet banned Hezbollah's military and security activity as unlawful. Hezbollah named its campaign "al-Asf al-Ma'koul" ("Eaten Straw") on 11 March. Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon from about 16 March in what the IDF called a targeted ground operation to widen its forward defence area, and the 2024 Mechanism suspended its meetings on 18 March. A heavy strike wave on 8 April preceded a US-brokered ten-day cessation from 16 April that moved Israel and Lebanon into direct talks without Hezbollah. According to the UN Secretary-General's report S/2026/566, an IDF map of 19 April showed a "forward defence line" enclosing an area up to 10 km north of the Blue Line, including some 55 Lebanese villages and some territory north of the Litani, and a June map showed it expanded. A conditional ceasefire was agreed by the two governments on 3 June; the UN records a Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire in effect from 19 June, after a US–Iran memorandum announced on 14 June stipulated a cessation on the Lebanese front. Israel and Lebanon signed the Trilateral Framework on 26 June, and the Lebanese army deployed into the first pilot zones in July.
Deklarowane cele
Co mówią uczestnicy. Każda pozycja wskazuje, gdzie stanowisko zostało wyrażone; Vigil odnotowuje, że je wyrażono, a nie że jest prawdziwe.
The IDF described the ground operation from mid-March as a targeted operation to widen Israel's forward defence area against Hezbollah; Israel's prime minister on 16 April described a reinforced security buffer zone running from the sea to the Hermon foothills. Israel states it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon.
Lebanon's cabinet on 2 March 2026 declared Hezbollah's military and security activity unlawful and obliged it to hand its weapons to the state; Hezbollah rejected the decision.
Hezbollah named its campaign "al-Asf al-Ma'koul" ("Eaten Straw") on 11 March 2026 and has called the Trilateral Framework "null and void", according to reports of its leader's statements.
Hezbollah's own names and characterisations, attributed.
Cele w ocenie Vigil
Odczytanie Vigil, ze stopniem pewności. Strukturalnie oddzielone od deklarowanych stanowisk, aby ocena nigdy nie mogła zostać opublikowana jako czyjś deklarowany cel.
Hold ground in southern Lebanon as the guarantee for the disarmament the Framework sequences, so that withdrawal follows verification zone by zone rather than a date.
Read from the Framework's withdrawal-after-disarmament sequence and the expansion of the line after the ceasefire; Israel frames the presence as security.
Siły główne
- Dowództwo Północne IDF Siły główne · Pewność: wysoka · stan na 2026-10
The IDF regional command responsible for the Lebanon front.
Siły przeciwne
- Organizacja wojskowa Hezbollahu Siły przeciwne · Pewność: wysoka · stan na 2026-06
UNIFIL recorded 52,514 trajectories from north to south of the Blue Line between 21 February and 20 June 2026 (S/2026/566); the report notes that each trajectory may be more than one projectile.
Wsparcie i podmioty zewnętrzne
- 91. Dywizja Galilejska Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2026-03
Named in IDF statements as opening the ground operation in mid-March 2026.
- 36. Dywizja Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2026-03
Named in IDF statements as joining the ground operation on 17 March 2026.
- 98. Dywizja Siły wspierające · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2026-04
Reported, citing IDF statements, as operating in southern Lebanon from early April 2026.
- 146. Dywizja Siły wspierające · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2026-03
AFP quoted the military in early March 2026 as saying 146th Division troops were operating in the west of southern Lebanon. A later reported withdrawal of the division is unconfirmed and not recorded.
- Izraelskie Siły Powietrzne Supporting force · Confidence: High · as of 2026-06
The UN observed or detected 2,418 air strikes between 21 February and 20 June 2026 (S/2026/566). No strike-target detail is carried.
- Wojskowa Grupa Koordynacyjna ds. Libanu (MCG4L) Siły wspierające · Pewność: umiarkowana · stan na 2026-10
A coordination body, not a combatant: the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon, named in the US Secretary of State's statement of 26 June 2026, implements the Framework's withdrawal-for-deployment sequence. It belongs to the post-ceasefire phase only.
Reported participants
- 162. Dywizja Reported participant · Confidence: Low · as of 2026-03
Reported in March 2026 as transferred from the Gaza front to the northern border and sent as reinforcement in southern Lebanon. Not confirmed in an IDF statement read for this record.
Strony dotknięte skutkami
- Libańskie Siły Zbrojne Strona dotknięta skutkami · Pewność: wysoka · stan na 2026-07
Not a party to the fighting; the UN records 33 Lebanese army personnel killed to 20 June and the army's temporary withdrawal from areas near the Blue Line. Under the Framework it is the force that deploys into pilot zones as Israel withdraws.
- Tymczasowe Siły ONZ w Libanie (UNIFIL) Strona dotknięta skutkami · Pewność: wysoka · stan na 2026-06
The UN records seven peacekeepers killed in four incidents in the period to 20 June, attributing two deaths to the IDF, four to non-state actors "presumably Hizbullah", and one incident as undetermined. UNIFIL ends operations on 31 December 2026 under Resolution 2790.
Hezbollah's entry and the cabinet ban
Hezbollah fired on Israel on 2 March 2026, in the opening days of the war with Iran, and Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs and southern Lebanon, then across the country. Lebanon's cabinet banned Hezbollah's military and security activity the same day. Hezbollah named its campaign "Eaten Straw" on 11 March. The Iran war itself is Iran–Gulf's record.
The ground operation
Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon from about 16 March, in what the IDF called a targeted ground operation; it has no official operation name. The 2024 Mechanism suspended its meetings on 18 March. Displacement in Lebanon exceeded one million people, the UN recording 1,049,328 displaced since 2 March by 20 June.
The 8 April strike wave and the ten-day cessation
A heavy Israeli strike wave on 8 April hit Beirut, the Bekaa and the south; the IDF has said that "Eternal Darkness", the name reported for it, was the name of an operational order rather than of an operation. On 16 April the US published a ten-day cessation agreed by Israel and Lebanon, which committed both governments to direct talks; it was extended on 23 April and on 15 May. Hezbollah was not a party.
The forward defence line
The IDF declared a "forward defence line", which Israel also calls the "Yellow Line". The UN Secretary-General reports that an IDF map of 19 April showed an area up to 10 km north of the Blue Line, including some 55 villages and some territory north of the Litani, with a band at sea, and that a June map showed it expanded. The Secretary-General called it a direct violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and of Resolution 1701.
The 19 June ceasefire and the Trilateral Framework
Israel and Lebanon agreed a conditional ceasefire on 3 June. The UN records a Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire in effect from 19 June, after a US–Iran memorandum announced on 14 June stipulated a cessation on the Lebanese front; Reuters reported US and Qatari mediation. On 26 June the two states signed the Trilateral Framework in Washington, which sequences zone-by-zone Israeli withdrawal after verified disarmament and is silent on the ceasefire.
The first pilot zones
According to press reports, Israel withdrew from areas around Froun and Srifa, then Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, on 20–21 July and the Lebanese army deployed into them. No further zone has been reported since July.
Skutek i obecny stan
Ongoing in a ceasefire. A Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire has been in effect since 19 June 2026, but Israel holds the forward defence line in southern Lebanon and continues strikes, and the only withdrawal under the Framework is the July pilot zones. Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health reported 4,106 people killed and 12,153 injured between 2 March and 20 June 2026, as recorded in S/2026/566, which also records at least 3 Israeli civilians and 36 soldiers killed. IOM counted 341,228 people internally displaced in Lebanon as of 15 September 2026. Hezbollah has not been disarmed and rejects the Framework.
Zaobserwowane adaptacje
Direct state-to-state negotiation, US-facilitated and outside both the 2024 Mechanism and the Security Council, replaced the indirect format of 2024 as the channel for the front's terms.
Implikacje polityczne
The Lebanese state is committed in two instruments to an outcome — a monopoly of arms — that it has not shown it can enforce, while the decisions on the Israeli side fall to the government formed after the 27 October 2026 election.
Implikacje wojskowe
The forward defence line is the standing fact; the Framework names no date for its reduction and the UN presence ends on 31 December 2026 with no successor decided.
Implikacje humanitarne
Residents may not return to the villages inside the Israeli-held area, and hundreds of thousands remain displaced.
Powiązane wydarzenia
Lokalizacje
Miejsca, które ten moduł już publikuje jako znaczniki na mapie, wymienione, ponieważ kampania ich dotyczy. Nie jest to obszar operacyjny.
Warstwy referencyjne
Co pozostaje nieznane
- The forward defence line has no published, agreed geometry; the module carries only the UN's description of the IDF maps and never draws it.
- The Framework's security annex has not been published and is known only from a leaked text.
- Incidents after 20 June 2026 are not covered by the Secretary-General's last published report, and press accounts are not consolidated.
- No Lebanese army deployment figure for February–June 2026 has been published.
Inne odczytania, które przesłanki również dopuszczają
- The forward defence line can be read as leverage for the disarmament sequence, as a buffer intended to outlast UNIFIL, or as both. Israel's stated position and the Framework's sequence are consistent with either.
Wymienione, ponieważ ocena zawarta we wpisie nie jest jedyną, na jaką pozwalają jego źródła — a nie jako zastrzeżenie osłabiające powyższą ocenę.
Pytania Watch, których dotyczy ta kampania
Stałe pytania analityczne, których przesłanki dotyczą tej kampanii, każde z najnowszym przeglądem. Wyprowadzone z obiektu Watch, nigdy nie powtarzane tutaj.
- WojskoCzy broń Hezbollahu przechodzi w ręce państwa libańskiego — przejmowana przez armię, objęta harmonogramem rządu albo oddawana przez kierownictwo Hezbollahu?
- WojskoCzy sekwencja „strefa po strefie” przewidziana w porozumieniu ramowym Izrael–Liban postępuje — siły izraelskie opuszczają wskazane obszary, a armia libańska do nich wkracza — czy też obszar kontrolowany przez Izrael się utrzymuje lub powiększa?
- DyplomacjaCo zastąpi UNIFIL na południe od Litani, gdy jego operacje ustaną 31 grudnia 2026 r.?
Zobacz w trybie Eksploruj siły, które ją prowadzą Interaktywnie: wybierz ten wpis i prześledź, co się z nim łączy.
Ocena na dzień — 2026-10 Ostatni przegląd — 2026-10-12