VIGIL CONSILIUM
Context, not headlines
PUBLIC ALPHAEvolving coverage — see the methodology and the corrections log.
Conflict Module · Sahel · Campaigns

Campaigns

Sustained military or coercive efforts, each grouping the events that belong to it. Campaigns exist so a timeline of thirty entries reads as three or four arcs — and so an event can be understood as part of something rather than on its own. Status describes where a campaign stands, never who is winning.

Related reference layers:Terrain contextStrategic logisticsImpact chains

01

Ongoing

2 observed operations

The largest coordinated offensive since 2012 — two movements with incompatible end-states fighting as one.

April 2026 – present3 phases2 linked eventsConfidence: ModerateStatus as of 2026-07Reviewed 2026-07-26

Why it matters. The offensives reversed the junta's signature military achievement and demonstrated reach from the Algerian border to the capital's approaches. But their significance is structural rather than territorial: two organisations with incompatible objectives — religious rule and self-determination — are fighting as one. Whether that alignment holds is the single biggest variable in the war, and it is a political question, not a military one.

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An insurgency strangling a state's economy without taking a city — declared September 2025 and still running.

Since September 20253 phases3 linked eventsConfidence: ModerateStatus as of 2026-07Reviewed 2026-07-26

Why it matters. This campaign changed what the war is about. For a decade the question was who holds which towns; the blockade made the question whether the state can keep its economy running. It reaches every household in Mali, it is cheap to sustain, and it cannot be answered by the drone-and-column approach that retook Kidal in 2023 — there is no position to seize. It is also the reason the economic, humanitarian and military pictures in this module converge on one set of roads.

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Context, not targeting. Campaign records describe objectives, participants, phases and outcomes at the level of published analysis. They contain no current positions, force ratios, unit locations or strengths — those classes of content have no fields in Vigil's schemas. See the methodology.