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Conflict Module · Sahel · Impact chains

Impact chains

An impact chain states how a security development transmits into economic exposure or civilian impact, one step at a time, and grades how firmly each step is established. The grading is the point: a mechanism Vigil assesses as likely is shown differently from one that is documented, and a step can never be graded more firmly than the step it depends on.

Risk context, not investment advice. These records explain mechanisms and state how firmly each link is established. They contain no prices, tickers, named securities, forecasts or recommendations, and nothing here should be read as a view on any asset.

Related reference layers:CampaignsTerrain contextStrategic logistics

How each step is graded

  • ConfirmedDocumented as having occurred, with sources.
  • Plausible exposureA mechanism Vigil assesses as likely; not documented as having occurred.
  • Unconfirmed scenarioNamed because it is worth watching. Not asserted.
01

Economic exposure

1 chain

How burning tankers on three roads reaches every price in a landlocked economy.

4 stepsConfidence: ModerateStatus as of 2026-07Reviewed 2026-07-26

Trigger. JNIM declares a blockade of fuel imports, September 2025

  1. Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
  2. Operational disruptionConfirmed
  3. Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
  4. Broader economic significancePlausible exposure

Exposure named: Refined fuel (imported) · Gold · Grain (rice, millet, sorghum) · Cotton · Road freight and transport services · Customs and trade-derived public revenue

Open the full chain →
02

Civilian impact

1 chain

Hunger in Mali is a logistics problem before it is a harvest problem — and the same insecurity that causes it blocks the response.

4 stepsConfidence: ModerateStatus as of 2026-07Reviewed 2026-07-26

Trigger. Corridor blockade and rural road insecurity, compounded by village blockades in the centre

  1. Affected area or systemConfirmed
  2. Access or service disruptionConfirmed
  3. Civilian conditionConfirmed
  4. Broader humanitarian significancePlausible exposure

Exposure named: Acute food insecurity · Child malnutrition · Internal displacement · Education access · Healthcare availability · Humanitarian access

Open the full chain →